Five storylines to watch at the 2024 Haru Basho

Here's what I'm paying attention to at the March tournament.

Edit: I was about to send this out, when I noticed something rather surprising and upsetting. Unfortunately the new owners of Bloody Elbow (who have not retained me or any of my colleagues) have erased all my sumo content from the site. Thank you to everyone who read and enjoyed that work there. I’m sad that those pieces are gone (I have them backed up elsewhere, though). But I’m also relieved to be moving on from somewhere that I dearly loved, but will never be the same. I’m currently chatting with two other outlets about hosting my sumo results. If no one takes it, though, you’ll get it all right here. Now… here’s what I was intending to send out:

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Our second Grand Sumo tournament of the year starts this Sunday. The 2024 Haru Basho brings us a stacked stable of san’yaku wrestlers, with four ozeki (all of whom seem perfectly capable of representing their ranking with the required, and expected, esteem).

If those four stay healthy, along with the all conquering Terunofuji, we could be blessed with a very competitive and intriguing tournament.

But the top level of the banzuke isn’t the only place you’ll find good potential for exciting narratives.

Read on below for five of the stories I’m excited to see play out. And let me know in the comments which of these storylines you are also tuning in for.

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1. Can anyone beat Terunofuji?

This is an obvious one. Our lone yokozuna has been dominant, when healthy. Since ascending to sumo’s highest and holiest rank Terunofuji has competed in 10 of the past 15 tournaments. Of those 10 tournaments, he made it to Day 15 on seven occasions.

Of the tournaments he has completed during his yokozuna reign, he’s won five of them (70%). So it’s pretty safe to say that, when he’s able to compete, he’s the best rikishi on the planet.

At 32 he’s not an old man. But his knees have been battered by thirteen years of sumo and some significant, and recent, surgeries. He has made it well known that his goal is to win double digit makuuchi titles (he has nine) and it’s rumoured he has already made moves to become a stable-master on retirement. So it seems clear that Big Teru is not long for this sport.

However, will he get his tenth (and likely last) yusho this month? Or perhaps a better question is… who can stop him?

If Terunofuji’s knees (and back) can make it through the March tournament you figure he will be in pole position to take it all. And a big reason for that is that his field of challengers is a little lacklustre.

Now, Kirishima, Hoshoryu, Takakeisho, Kotonowaka, Daieisho, Wakamotoharu and Asanoyama are all excellent wrestlers. But none of them have been able to stand up to Terunofuji in a way that can convince me that they can pose a serious threat to the yokozuna, especially if it comes down to a play-off situation (like we had in January).

Against those wrestlers Terunofuji is 51-11 (barring fusen). Those 11 losses are split between Takakeisho (6), Daieisho (4) and Wakamotoharu (1).

“This is my house!”

Kirishima, Hoshoryu and Kotonowaka have developed considerably since they first started going at Terunofuji, but it’s still amazing that neither of them have notched a win against him yet. If either wants a shot at the Emperor’s Cup this month they will need to figure out a way to beat him.

Looking at the numbers, Takakeisho has shown the best form against Terunofuji. But he also has a big “if he’s healthy” caveat.

Given the question marks over Takakeisho (which I will get to next), the March tournament is really Terunofuji’s to lose (unless perhaps a certain flying monkey can throw a wrench into the works).

Terunofuji doesn’t like Tobizaru as far as he can throw him. That’s pretty far.

2. Takakeisho in a corner

The only man who has been competitive against Terunofuji is our longest serving ozeki, Takakeisho (he’s 4-6 against the man mountain). Takakeisho is one of the few wrestlers who can bring a level of force and intensity that is capable of backing Terunofuji up and forcing him on his heels.

Takakeisho comes into March kadoban though, so his focus might be more on saving his skin than lifting a cup. If he notches a losing record this month he will lose the rank he’s held since 2019.

Don’t talk shit about bingo wings.

The Angry Hamster is kadoban due to a 2-2-11 record in January, with him bowing out the competition on day four due to back problems. Takakeisho has been in this position before.

After hurting his knee last March, he took a 3-4-8 record. That forced him to fight for his rank in May, which he did adequately. With a healthy dose of henka Takakeisho was able to limp through with an 8-7 record. He then took off the entire following basho to recuperate.

His recuperation went exceedingly well. He returned in September and won his 4th yusho.

There was nothing wrong this.

In November he once again failed to capitalize on a tournament win and parlay that into consideration to become the 74th yokozuna. Rash decision making took him out the running to contend in November and then injury struck again this January.

In March Takakeisho will need to dig deep again to keep his place among the elites. If he’s healthy (there’s that phrase again), I believe he’ll not only get kachi-koshi, but also have a say in who might win this thing.

3. Onosato’s sink or swim moment

After Hakuoho and Atamifuji surprised the top division and came close to lifting titles despite their young ages and lack of pro experience, it was Onosato’s turn to try the same in January.

The young man with short hair did well in his first ever makuuchi tournament (and only fifth pro tournament), scoring an impressive 11-4 record and a Fighting Spirit prize.

Onosato’s strength, size and speed shocked most of his opponents, resulting in quick oshidashi and yorikiri wins throughout the first half of the tournament. However, once he was matched up with the best rikishi in the sport the wheels started to fall off.